The Bills messy playoff picture, attempted explanation
By: Nick Wojton
ORCHARD PARK – Just win, baby.
No seriously, please just win out the year, Buffalo Bills.
The Bills, at 8-6 overall, have a realistic look at ending their 17-year playoff drought.
Beyond that… damn is this thing messy.
So here’s some of the basics that *I think* are right.
Seriously, just win.
Many are counting the Bills out of this Sunday’s game against the New England Patriots (11-3). But if Buffalo does win, and win against the Miami Dolphins (6-8) in the final week of the season, Buffalo has a 96 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to the New York Times playoff machine.
OK, now it gets fun.
If the Bills lose to New England and Miami becomes a must-win in the final week and in this fantasy world the Bills are, in fact, 9-7. The three teams in play are the Baltimore Ravens (8-6), Tennessee Titans (8-6), and Los Angeles Chargers (7-7).
The Ravens, who play the Indianapolis Colts (3-11) and Cincinnati Bengals (5-9) at home, would need to lose one of those games or the Titans would need to lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) Week 17.
But the Titans, who host the Los Angeles Rams (10-4) next week, also have to beat the Rams. If Tennessee loses to both the Rams and Jags, the Bills again need a loss by the Ravens or a loss by Chargers, who play at the New York Jets (5-9) or at the Dolphins.
For what it’s worth, according to the NYT playoff simulator, the Bills have a 71-percent chance of making the playoffs if the Bills lose to the Patriots and beat the Dolphins.
My head hurts.